Odd Perspective

Just for fun, I downloaded all the winning lottery numbers from two of the California games to analyze the numbers to see if there is any way to accurately predict them. I suspect there isn't, but the prospect has haunted me for many years.

My understanding of the universe and the meaning of "random" is challenged by my perspective on things. Perhaps there is no way to predict the future, but suppose there was. Is there really such a thing as randomness? If you think about it, the next lottery drawing will produce six numbers. The way I see it, they are six specific numbers. There are only six numbers that will be drawn. We don't know what they are, yet, but no matter how you look at it, there are six specific numbers that are destined to be drawn. I guess the real question is, can anything between now and then influence what the six numbers enevetably will be, or is it truly destined that six specific numbers will be drawn and there's nothing that can change what those numbers will be?

It is an interesting thought experiment - I just wish there was some way to test it. But if there are only six specific numbers destined to be drawn in the next drawing, it seems logical that there must be some way to predict them. It also seems like the only way possible to win the damn thing.

Think about this. The odds of winning the mega lotto (or whatever it is called) is one in 176 million. Basically, if you have a random number generator that spits out 176 million unique numbers, one at a time, and two numbers were picked every week, it would take nearly 1,692,308 years to spit out all of the 176 million unique numbers. Therefore, if you have a favorite number that you picked to compare against the number that the random number generator spit out every time, it is possible that you would have to wait over one and a half million years to see a match.

Unless you are incredibly lucky.

If you spent 30 years comparing your number twice a week, you would perform only 3120 comparisons. The chances of you picking a number that matches a number that the random number generator spits out in the first 3120 drawings is painfully slim. Possible (I mean, it happens), but slim. But just thinking about it in this way really puts the lottery into perspective. You actually have a better chance of getting struck by lightning twice than you do of winning the super lotto. And you have a better chance of getting struck by a meteorite than you do of winning the mega lotto.

So, why play if you can't predict the numbers? I think any attempt to predict the numbers actually reduces my odds of winning (pretty close to the classification of "impossible"), because then I would be essentially picking random numbers hoping that they will match the set of random numbers provided by the random number generator. It is at least possible to win if you play the same set of numbers every time - that way, you've got the random aspect on only one side of the equation. Nevertheless, it is a fun little experiment. Next, I think I'll try my hand at converting lead to gold.

Even the super lotto has odds of winning around one in 41 million. Picking a unique random number twice a week would only require about 394,231 years to exhaust all possible combinations. Therefore, your odds of winning if you play for 30 years approaches the realm of possibility. Still highly improbable, but possible. In my opinion, it is impossible to win the mega lotto (especially if I don't play), so I'm certainly not banking on anything. But it sure would be nice!

So, I think what I will do is come up with a scheme, based on what little history I have on previous drawings, that seems to predict results with at least some apparent degree of accuracy, and I'll buy two tickets - one with a standing set of numbers that I always play, and one with my predictions. I figure that will cost me $208 per year. Hey, it's worth a shot. People do win.

Wish me good luck! That's what it's going to take.